Statement from Extinction Rebellion on the latest UK Climate Projections (UKCP18)
November 26, 2018 by Extinction Rebellion
Extinction Rebellion welcomes the Met Office’s Climate Projections 2018 report (UKCP18), which we have asked our scientists to examine. The Met Office paints an alarming picture of what we will most likely face in the UK.
At first glance, we are concerned that the Met Office’s projections underplay the climate and ecological emergency that we are facing – that they are on the conservative side – and therefore limit the potential responses to that emergency. The Met Office states that some of the UKCP18 work is based on the IPCC’s 5th Assessment Report which was published in 2013. It therefore does not take into account newer scientific understandings relating to permafrost thaw, snow cover, glacier and ice sheet melt and stability all of which feed back into the global climate system.
UKCP18 confirms that even if global emissions stop tomorrow many impacts worsen for the UK and the rest of the world.
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement emissions implied by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – each country’s pledges – would result in multi-millennial sea level rise of more than 5m and around 7m if radical action is taken to limit global temperature rises to <2°C by 2100.
If temperatures hit 3-4°C (as implied by continued effort of current NDCs) we could lock in up to 30m over the longer term. [1]
Every 5 year delay in peaking global emissions commits us to 20cm more sea level rise by 2300. [2]
We have seen thousands of people coming together as Extinction Rebellion in the last few weeks in acknowledgement of the ecological and climate catastrophe we face, demanding an emergency response from the Government.
Extinction Rebellion’s topline demands are:
- The Government must admit the truth about the ecological emergency, reverse all policies inconsistent with addressing climate change, and work alongside the media to communicate with citizens
- The Government must enact legally binding policy measures to reduce carbon emissions to net zero by 2025 and to reduce consumption levels
- A national Citizen’s Assembly must be created, to oversee the changes, as part of creating a democracy fit for purpose.
Notes
For interviews and enquiries, email: press@risingup.org.uk
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Website: www.rebellion.earth
Climate Factsheet for Rebels https://rebellion.earth/the-climate-factsheet-for-rebels/
[1] Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy, Clark et al 2018,
Nature Climate Change, ttp://www.pik-potsdam.de/~anders/publications/clark_mix18.pdf
[2] Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action, Mengel et al 2018, Nature Communication. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-02985-8